Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Eastern Conference 2017-2018 Pre-Season Preview

Eastern Conference 2017-2018 Pre-Season Preview
My first attempt at doing this. These rosters are "current snapshots" with 1st round 2016 WHL Bantam draft picks and imports.

Rosters are guaranteed to change.

Golden Rule: It is never about what a team losses. Sure a high turnover generally means a younger roster, and less experienced group, but what a team retains and improves upon on is a much bigger deciding factor.

How to Read the Numbers
Example: Ty Lewis(19)(.97/.48)
-Ty Lewis will be going into his 19yr old and 3rd WHL season.  he put up .97  .48 PPG respectively


The Following ARE NOT LINE COMBOS, they are loose depth charts. Players will be in wrong positions, it is just a basic look at depth. 

Brandon Wheat Kings

Question Marks
  • Nolan Patrick -  NHL
    • Top picks  have great track records of playing in the NHL the following season. It is almost a guarantee that he starts the season in Philly and that is why I am not including him in Brandon's Lineup. 
  • James Shearer (overage)
    •  He is out with a torn Achilles tendon and will be out for 4-6 months which means he will miss the start of the season. He is an overage.

Offense

Ty Lewis(19)(.97/.48)  Stelio Mattheos(18) (0.88/.6)  Tanner Kaspick(19)(0.92/.57/.34)
Connor Gutenberg(19)(0.56/.23) Caiden Daley(17)(0.17)  Martin Kaut(I)(18)
Cole Reinhardt(17)(0.11) Linden McCorrister(19) (0.21/.18)  Baron Thompson(18)(0.15)
Zach Russell(18)(0.13)  Tak Anholt(19) (0.13) Rylan Bettens(17)(0.08)
  • Very potent top line
  •  Their secondary scoring may be a little inconsistent at times.  Ideally you want a solid top 6, and Brandon will need Guttenberg+ their new import have good seasons for a top 5. Currently their offense has some volatility. 
  • I would not be surprised to see them add or upgrade an overage forward to provide more depth up front.
  •  They have some players I would describe as "fillers"  Where newer prospects may be able to push them out for ice time.
  • No word yet if Martin Kaut will be reporting.

Defence

Kale Clague (19)(0.83/.61/.65)) Higson Schael(19)(.28/.15/.12)
Daniel Bukac(I)(18)(0.24)  Kade Jensen((20) D
Garrett Sambrook(17)(0.13) Zach Wyntinck(18)(.03)
Braden Schneider(16)(1st round 2016 pick)
INJ - James Shearer(20)(0.48)
  • Clague is a 2nd round NHL draft pick, Bukac is a 7th rounder.
  • Their 12th overall pick from 2016 will likely have room to make the team 
  • They have a good mix of ages and this group appears solid. Defense could be a strength for Brandon
  • Do they keep Kade Jensen, Shearer and Clague? It will be a cause for high turnover next season

Goaltending

Logan Thompson(20)(.908/.898)
New Player
  • Thompson will be their go to guy because they have no one else. As an overage, their goal-tending should be solid as long as injuries don't force their hand. An injury will post risks to their Goals Against Totals.

Other Overagers

Not Included in Depth Charts
Meyer Nell F - Depth forward
  • With the injury to James Shearer Mayer Nell could likely start the season in Brandon.
  • They have some room to tinker.  Based on their roster I feel like they may look to bolster their forward group.

Imports: 2

Daniel Bukac(18)(0.24)
Martin Kaut(I)(18) - Unknown if reporting.

Age Index(Not including all new prospects)

18.33

Drafting Outlook 

2016-16's: Mid position no 3rd
2015-17's: Last position
2014-18's:  Early mid+ 1st overall
2013-19's: Early + 2 1sts
2012-20's Mid
  • Suggests that Brandon should have a very strong team this year.(may not be the case) The potential loss of Nolan Patrick could negates that.
  •  Their incoming prospects has potential to be on the weaker side due to later positioning in the 15/16 drafts. Their 16's next season may be higher quality.

Intangibles

  • Nolan Patrick's Return
  • How does their 2nd euro perform
  • Overage Situation - Do they upgrade their offense?
  • I felt last season Brandon was unlucky 

TigerTurf's Projected Goal Scoring:

 225 Goals 
  • A forward OA  will boost this.
Potential to Increase in Value
Depends on their euro reporting, Nolan Patrick's Return, as well as filling in a 3rd overage with a scorer.  I think it will be hard for them to push past MJ, or Regina. If  Patrick returns and they get an OA forward up front, their value significantly increases to the point where I would bump them up a whole tier, because their defense looks solid.

Potential to Decrease in Value
If their euro doesn't report, if they decide not to bolster their forward group they are hurting for secondary scoring and could be at risk of missing the playoffs. Any long term injury to a top line player will eliminate secondary scoring. Their is just as much potential for them to drop behind, as rising forward.  If they do drop behind I would not be surprised to see them sell as they have some very attractive assets.

Prognosis
My initial instincts... This is a roster that is at best average right now. I see too many "if's in regards to having a stronger roster, but that doesn't mean their isn't potential.

I see Moose Jaw and Regina being barriers that will be tough for them to cross unless some of those "If's do indeed fill out. Patricks return and an OS upgrade could turn this roster into an above average roster, where I would bump them up into competing for a Home Ice spot. Most likely a successful season would be a 3rd place in the division. A disappointing season would be missing the playoffs with an elder lineup.

After doing evaluation on all Eastern Division teams 3rd place in the division will be no easy task.

Calgary Hitmen

Questions Marks

  • Jake Bean -  Either NHL or Juniors for Bean. He was the 13th overall pick in the 2016 Entry Draft. Carolina has 6 signed guys; however, they have a very inexpensive blueline and their is room for Bean to play his way onto the team. He will likely be given a very long look and If he is sent back it may not be until late. Since he is 19 and drafted out of the CHL he is ineligible for the AHL. Losing bean early would be a massive blow
  • Overage battle between Stukel & Reagan.The Stukel vs Regan may be a closer battle than it appears largely because their defence may be a weak point in comparison with their offense...more about this below.

Offense

Beck Malenstyn(19)(0.80/.36/.24) M. Gennaro(20)(1.16/.6/.43/.25) Jakob Stukel(20)(0.76/.87/.37)
Jake Kryski(19)(0.78/0.58/0.37)   Mark Kastelic(18)(0.52/.17)  Andrei Grishakov(18)(0.50)
Luke Coleman(19)(0.47/.41)  Andrew Fyten(19)(0.19/.13) Lucas Cullen (18)(0.22)
Matt Dorsey(18)(0.18) Justyn Gurney(17)(0.13) Murphy Stratton(18)(.09)

  • This group is largely intact from last season. It is a now veteran group with a great deal of potential. They have a very formidable top 6 IF Stukel is kept
  • Their bottom 6 depth is a little weak initially, however we may see some newer prospects give this group more competition for roster spots.

Defence

Jake Bean(19)(1.05) Vladislav Yeryomenko(18)(0.40)
Jakib LaPoint(19)(0.15/0.10) Jameson Murray(18)(.09)
Drea Esposoiti(17)(0.06) Jackson Van de Leest(2016 16th overall  pick)

  • Bean is a 13th overall NHL selection
  • Their defense was a big weak point last season., and they have a medium amount of turnover 
  • This season they are top heavy with little experience on positions 3-6.
  • I feel like they are  below average. If Bean gets plucked off to the NHL they will have a big gap. Bean will likely be gone at the start of the season so defensively they may struggle out of the gate.
  • They may need some extra oomf and suddenly keeping Reagan looks like a much more attractive deal. This is the type of decision though that fans don't like.

Goaltending

Nick Schneider(20)

  • They should be solid, but their is some volatility here. Schneider lost the starters job 2 years in a row in the hat. He should provide a lot more presence in net that what the Hitman have received the last couple years.

Other Overagers

Brady Reagan D
  • Reagan could very well end up on the blueline. Stukel likely had a lot of value, and the hitman need some D help. 

Imports:2

Andrei Grishakov(18)(0.50)
Vladislav Yeryomenko(18)(0.40)
The Hitman did not re-draft a euro. Their euro's put up great numbers last season as 17's. They will both look to have impact years.

Age Index(Not including all new prospects)

18.45

Drafting Outlook

2016-16's: Late ( 2-2nds, no 4th)
2015-17's:  Late (no 3rd, 4-4ths)
2014-18's:  Late (no 1st, 3 4th's)
2013-19's: Late ( 2 5ths)
2012-20's: Late (no 3rd, 2 4ths)
  •  Their later drafting  position and lack of 1st rounder in 2014 suggests they should have a weaker team.  However their drafting prowess looks like they have at least recovered offensively.

Intangibles

  • Stukel vs Reagan - More than likely their could be a decent market for stukel. If they could get a decent return for him it could make a lot of sense to keep Reagan. That way they would have a solid top 4 with a defensive defenceman rounding up a solid top 4.
  • New coach and GM - Their new GM comes from Kootenay which has a long history on smart intelligent defensively aware systems. 

Potential to Increase in value
If they can shore up their back-end depth, while still dressing a competitive top 6. I'd say they would be able to compete for 2nd in the division. I feel right now if they keep stukel they need 2 key defenceman to challenge for a higher spot. IF they keep Reagan, they'll need 1 defenceman and 1 forward.

Potential To Decrease in value
Loosing bean their MVP defenceman would deal a significant enough blow to their back-end where they could be fighting for the 8th wildcard spot.

TigerTurf's Projected Goal Scoring:

252-276
  • I might be overestimating them here

Prognosis

Almost their entire offensive core returns. As a result they look to have an above average group up front. Defensively their is potential for concern and that is likely why they choose to go with the band-aid of acquiring an OA goalie.

I feel the Hitman have a tough choice of being good offensively and below average defensively. Or being average defensively and average offensively.

They could be anywhere from 2nd in the division to missing the playoffs as their defensive situation is concern-able. I am putting them into the average Tier
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Edmonton Oil Kings

Offense

Davis Koch(19)(0.97/.40/.48) Trey Fix-Wolansky(18)(.77)Colton Kehler(20)(.49/.39)
Kobe Mohr(18)(0.35/.24)) Nick Bowman(17)(0.23) Brett Kemp(17)(0.37)
Ty Gerla(18)(0.26) Murray Davis(18)(0.21) Tyson Gruninger(19)(0.24/.16/.18)
Andrei Pavlenko(17) Liam Keeler(16*)(.29) Brian Harris(18*)(.20)
  • Their vets are underwhelming.
  • This is a developing year. They are pretty young

Defence

Connor McDonald(18)(0.45/.08) Will Warm(18)(0.36)
Brayden Gorda(18)(.29/0.20)  Anatolii Elizarov(I)(19)(.19/.14)
Ethan Cap(17)(0.16) Wyatt McLeod(17)(0.15)
Jordan Dawson(19)(0.07/.12)
Matthew Robertson(16*)(0.14)
Jayden Platz(17*)(0)
  • Younger group that should get better as the season progresses.

Goal-tending

Travis Childs(20)
Liam Hughes(18)(.895)
Josh Dechaine(18)(.876)
  • Acquired an overage goalie in the off-season to shore up goaltending.

Other Overagers

Adam Berg F
Jesse Roach F
  •  none are trade-able here. They have room to upgrade an O/A spot. 

Imports:2

Anatolii Elizarov(I)(19)(.19)
Andrei Pavlenko(17) NEW unknown report status

They know they aren't "going for it" so they went with a younger Import to develop with their 12th overall Import selection. Their 17yr old age group has potential to be well above average

Age Index
17.9

Drafting Outlook
2016-16's: Early ( 2 - 1sts, no 2,3, 2 -4ths)
2015-17's: Mid 
2014-18's:  Late ( no 2nd)
2013-19's: Late ( no 1st, 5th)
2012-20's: Last ( no 3rd)
  • Their championship seasons of the past have caught up with them. Their drafting position suggests a weaker year, where next season this group will look to be back into the average territory.

Intangibles

Potential to Increase in value
They have a number of younger players that could potentially be poised to start breaking out. If they do get a bunch of them to breakout, it could be a "where the hell did this team come from type scenario"

Potential To Decrease in value
A younger developing group. Their youth and inexperience could be too much. If their prospects flatten out it would lead to a delay in recovery.


TigerTurf's Projected Goal Scoring:

225 Goals


Prognosis

They won't be a top tier team looking to win a championship,  however. This is the type of roster where everyone could predict them finishing last, and surprise, surprise, they end up making a push in the 2nd half. I think they are still too young to make legitimate noise, but I don't know the inn's and outs of their roster.

This is a pure developing roster, as such their is a lot of volatility on how much "developing" they will do. As teams make playoff pushes Edmonton should also get a lot better in terms of their players gaining experience.

I think making the playoffs will count as a huge success, but I don't expect them to make it. 3rd/wildcard would be considered a good season.
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Kootenay Ice

Offense

Colton Kroeker(20)(1.1/.42/.12)  Vince Loschiavo(19)(0.84/.16/.16)  Brett Davis(18)(0.56/.17)
  Peyton Krebs(16*)(1) Gillian Kohler(17)  Jake Elmer(18)(0.35)(0)
Noah Philp(19)(.29)(.33)  Barrett Sheen(19)(.33)(.26)  Max Patterson(18)(.24/.16)
Keenan Taphorn(17)(.13) Michael King(17)(.14)  Kaeden Taphorn(17)(.17)
Tanner Sidaway(18)(.12)  Cameron Hausinger(18)(.24/.19) Reed Morison(19)(.11)

  • They have 2 big newcomers Their 1st overall pick in 2015, as well as their 3rd overall pick in the last Import draft. Both are very young, but will be impacts in Kootenays lineup.
  • Their isn't enough meat to be a contender &  They will have a "developing roster"
  • They have struggled the last couple seasons filling out a roster with  filler type players. 
  •  Their will be some pruning to do, they have a number of players

Defence

Cale Fleury(19)(0.54/.41/.19) Jordan Henderson(20)
Dallas Hines(19)(0.34/.17) Troy Murray(20)(.27/.17/.26/.19)
Ryan Pouliot(19)(.24)(.14) Fedor Rudakov(19)(.14)
 Martin Bodak(19) Sam Huston(18)(.11)
  • Veteran and older group. This group gave up a league high 335 last season
  • 6 players 19yrs an older. They should make moves to change this.

Goal-tending

Jakob Walker(18)(.868)
Mario Petit(20)(.896)
  • Career backup will be their starter.

Imports

Gillian Kohler(17) F- confirmed to report
Martin Bodak(19) D

Age Index
18.4

Other Overagers

Kurtis Rutledge D(20)(.12/.12)
Austin Wellsby F(20)(.3/.25/.03)

Drafting Outlook
2016-16's: 1st ( 3 4ths)
2015-17's:  Mid (no first, no 5th, 2 6th)
2014-18's:  Mid ( no 3rd)
2013-19's: mid ( 4 5ths)
2012-20's: mid ( no 5th, 2 6ths)
  • Suggests an average roster.

Intangibles

  • Do they keep an older roster, or do they make moves to balance it out for next season.
  • Their defence age wise, is very old. 6 players that are 19 and older suggests a huge amount of turnover next season. I think they will want to balance this out.
  • I could be  wrong with this team, because they are an older group
Potential to Increase in value
If their 19yr old age group have huge seasons.  If their 1st overall pick from 2015, and their 3rd overall selection at the Import Draft prove to big big contributors, they could push the ice up to the average tier.

Potential To Decrease in value
Can't get much lower than last season. If they aren't looking great at the deadline they may have a forward and 2 defenceman who may be quite valuable in trade.

TigerTurf's Projected Goal Scoring:
210 Goals

Prognosis

Their drafting positions suggest they should be mid pack. They have one of the older rosters in the division with lesser scoring potential, similar to Saskatoon.

This is a lineup that I see a lot of potential to tinker with. Having a veteran roster that misses the playoffs is not a good thing to have.

Their defence is a bit concerning age-wise It is an older group that gave up a league high last season. If they don't make changes they will have a lot of turnover.

Due to their age/experience A successful season would be getting a wildcard spot.
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Lethbridge Hurricanes

Question Marks
  • 1. Do they keep an Overage Import in Babenko or go with Alec Baer?
  • 2. Will Estephan be back? He went unsigned. He is in camp with the wild

Offense

Giorgio Estephan(20)(1.3/1.25/.8/.4) Jordy Bellerive(18)(.8/.55)  Ryan Bowen(19) (.67/.21)
 Ryan Vandervlis(19)(.42/.30/.21) Tanner Nagel(19)(.22/.03)  Alec Baer(20)(.56/.57/.42/.3)
Jadon Joseph(18)(.22) Dylan Cozens(16*)(.6) Zane Franklin(18)(.22)
Yegor Zudilov(17)F Josh Tarzwell(17)(.14)

  • Missing their top 2 guns from last season
  • Core is a year older
  • Overall scoring depth is quite a bit lower than most teams in the East.

Defence

Brennan Menell(20)(1/.77/.37) Calen Addison(17)(.52)
Igor Merezhko(19) (.29/.18) Brady Pouteau(19)(.25/.16)
Kyle Yewchuk(19)(.19/.11) Ty Prefontaine(18)(.08)
  • Veteran experienced group, all key players return
  • Should generate a lot of offense from their D

Goal-tending

Stuart Skinner(19)(.905/.920/.909)
Ryan Gilchrist(19)(.890)
Adam Swan(17)(.860)
  • Skinner is a 3rd round NHL pick

Imports

Igor Merezhko(19)D (.29/.18)
Yegor Zudilov(17)F - unknown if reporting

  • They have a choice between an older veteran player or a younger player.
Age Index
18.5

Other Overagers

Brennan Riddle(20)(.26/0.08/.1)

Drafting Outlook

2016-16's:  Late
2015-17's:  2nd ( no 4th,5th)
2014-18's:  2nd ( 3 2nds, no 3rd, 3 4th, 2 5th)
2013-19's: Early ( no 4th, 2 5th)
2012-20's:  Early ( 2 1sts, 2-6ths)
  • Suggests that the Canes should have a strong year

Intangibles

  • I always wonder how much of Tyler Wongs' influence had on the canes.
  • Will their 2nd and 3rd lines step up with a scoring by commitee approach to improve their Scoring depth?  
  • Defence and ability to keep the puck out of their net will be a strong point. Will they have enough offensive power?
Potential to Increase in value
They have championship experience with a veteran roster. If come the trade deadline they are near the top they may be looking to acquire some more meat in their top 6.

Potential To Decrease in value
I think their potential to decrease in value is higher than their potential to increase. Their scoring depth up front might be a little shallow, which could lead to scoring inconsistencies. They didn't need it last season, but a key injury could really set them back. Did they play too much over their head last season? 

TigerTurf's Projected Goal Scoring:

220 Goals

Prognosis

I feel like last season they played way over their heads. However they came very close to the WHL Finals. If I were to avoid their accomplishments from last season I would say they are slightly above average.  However almost everyone returns minus their overagers, and I put more weight behind that.

I look at their roster, and it makes me think that if  they can can be that good based on what they have, I am underestimating everyone else, or their coach will get promoted to the pro's.

Young Calen Addison will be a player to watch. .5PPG as a defenceman in a 16yr old year is quite impressive.

The Hurricanes  keep their defensive and goaltending core last year that brought them into the Eastern Conference Final.  Their forward core is a year older up front. Their goaltending is solid with skinner in net. It is hard to see this team not competing for 1st or 2nd in the division as long s they don't run into long-term injuries which could easily derail them.

Their offense has a very impressive top line, and the rest should score by committee. They seem like a team with a very solid roster. They should be an above average  team in the central competing for 2nd in the division. I think they will need to boost their roster and if they do so up front, they will compete for the division.
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Medicine Hat

Questions:
  • Will Fischer get plucked to the pro's? 
  • How will Mick Kohler perform?
  • Will they keep Rubins over the 2 other Imports the Tigers drafted.
  • Goaltending - will their starter be an overage or the 18yr old Hollett
  • In an ideal world both new Imports come over and Hollett can be a starter. If that doesn't happen they will need an extra aquision to shore up offense or defence.

Forwards

Max Gerlach(19)(.86/.63)  Mason Shaw(19)(1.32/0.9/0.39) Zach Fischer(20)(1.02/0.37/.19)
 Mark Rassell(20)(.85/.39/.21) James Hamblin(18)(.68/.06)  Mick Kohler(19)
Tyler Preziuso(18)(.31/.17) Josh Williams(16)   Ryan Jevne(19) (.39/.15)
Ryan Chyzowski(17)(.23) Gary Haden (18)(.25)

  • Deadly top 6, the Tigers won't have scoring issues
  • Great bottom 6 depth. Jevne/Prezuiso's will be looking to become impact players

Defence

Kristians Rubins(20)(.49) Dylan Macpherson(19)(.18)
David Quenneville(19)(1.2/.86/.3) Dalton Gally(19)(.16)
Cameron MacPhee(18)(.06)



  • Veteran group 
  • Premier powerplay quarterback
  • If Nassen reports and Hollet can be the #1 and Fischer comes back. Add nassed to Rubins spot, and Add Schultz(20) or Henderson(20) to their D core 
Jordan Hollett(18)(.901/.887)
McGovern(18)
Michael Bullion(20)(.901/.867/.900)
  • Will Hollett become the starter which makes Bullion expendable? The Tigers have a few options.

Imports(3)

Kristians Rubins(20) - likely injured to start the year.
Mick Kohler(19) - Unsure if reporting
Linus Nassen(19) - Unsure if reporting

Age Index


18.5

Other Overagers
Brad Forrest
Ty Schultz
Jordan Henderson(20)(.73/.09/.09)
Michael Bullion(20)(.901/.867/.900)
  • If Nassen reports and the Tigers don't choose Rubins, and the Tigers don't go with overage Bullion it opens up a spot for Schultz/Henderson/Forrest

Drafting Outlook
2016-16's:   Early ( 2 2nds)
2015-17's:  Late ( 2 5ths)
2014-18's:  Late ( 2 3rds, no 5th)
2013-19's: Mid ( 2 2nds, no 5th, 2 6th)
2012-20's: middle-late ( no 3rd/4th) 


  • Mid and late positions with extra early picks suggests an above average roster.

TigerTurf's Projected Goal Scoring:


310 


Intangibles

  • The Tigers could have a potential championship team without needing to acquire anyone if the pieces of the puzzle regarding Imports & overagers fall into play.
  • If those puzzle pieces don't fall correctly, they may need to look at aquiring a veteran defenceman

Potential to Increase in value
If Nassen reports, Hollet retains the starters job it opens up an extra slot for a veteran defenceman. The Tigers will be exceptionally strong.

Potential To Decrease in value
If Fischer gets plucked to the Pro's, Nassen doesnt report, Hollett can't control the starters job. the Tigers will simply be above average. Most likely still in contention, but their are more holes that need to be filled.

Prognosis

The Tigers Maintain a wicked top 2 lines. Gerlach, Shaw, Rassell, Fischer all have the potential to reach the 40 goal plateau. Defenceman David Quenneville, and James Hamblin may also be knocking close by.

Offence for the 2nd straight year will not be a problem. This will be a high scoring team. Their question mark or unknown factor is how strong their defensive game will be.  If the pieces as mentioned above fall into place I will expect them to have a dominant team. If they don't fall into place they will have a run and gun, football type scoring games.
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Moose Jaw Warriors

Offense

B. Burke(20)(1.34/1.51/0.83) Jayden Halbgewachs(20)(1.42/.59/.14)  Brett Howden(19)(1.4/.94/.68)
Noah Gregor(19)(1.17/1) Tanner Jeannot(20)(0.73/.46/.1) Justin Almeida(18)(0.45/.13)
Luka Burzan(17)(.41)  Branden Klatt(19)(0.3/.19) Tristan Langan(19)(.26/.32)
Chance Petruic(18)(.07) Brecon Wood(17)(.04)  Brayden Tracey(16)
  • Exceptionally strong top 6
  • Great overall depth
  • Next year their will be a lot of turnover

Defence

Josh Brooke(18)(0.58/.33) Dmitri Zaitsev(19)(.29)  
Jeff Woo(17)(.34)  Colin Paradis(19)(.14/.1)
Oleg Sosunov (19) Brandon Armstrong(18)(.06)

  • I'm very unfamiliar with them, but they appear to be solid. They may need a little more experience to fill out their top 4.& I have suspicions that they may look to shore this area up
  • They got a huge 6'8 russian in the import draft, but scouting reports say he is more of a physical take care of your own end defenceman.
  • Massive size
  • If I'm very picky they might be missing a PP quarterback, but I'm guessing their top 6 forwards may play apart in that department

Goaltending

Brody Willms(19)(.907/.906/.886)
Adam Evanoff(17)
  • Williams looks more than capable of becoming a starter.

Imports

Dmitri Zaitsev D(19)(.29)
Oleg Sosunov D (19) - 6th round NHL pick+signed

Age Index


18.4

Other Overagers
Spencer Bast(20)(0.3/.26)

Draft History
2016-16 :Late (no 2nd/4th)
2015-17 Early (2 1sts)
2014-18 Early no 4th
2013-19: Early (no 2/3rd/ 2-4ths
2012-20: mid No first
  • Suggests they should have an above average roster

TigerTurf's Projected Goal Scoring:

293


Intangibles

They unexpected loss of Goalie Zach Zawchenko might be a blessing in disguise. It allows MJ to keep one of their high scoring forwards.

Potential to Increase in value
If their defence is a lot stronger and shows a lot of improvement

Potential To Decrease in value
Is their defensive group experienced enough?  I am unfamiliar with them, but most of them are a year older. If their Russian Dman can lead the way it will ease my concerns about their lesser experience. Their are some questions about their top guys who's scoring dried up in the playoffs

Prognosis

Their drafting position suggests they should have a strong core.  Moose Jaw has an impressive top 6. I think this is their year to make some noise.  I don't have a good read on their defensive group.

They unexpectedly lost a star goaltender, but it might be a blessing in disguise, so they don't need to keep an OA goaltender.

I think their lineup has a lot of potential in it. Their is a lot of top talent and depth. 1st or 2nd in the East division.
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Prince Albert Raiders

Questions
  • Does Dominik Bokk(17) report? That single question changes the outlook of the team

Offense

 Kelly Parker(18)(0.6/.28) Curtis Miske (20)(.7/.46/.21)Jordy Stallard(20)(.92/.72/.45)
 Cole Fonstad(17)(.38) Carson Miller(17)(.41) Dominik Bokk(17)
 Sean Montgomery(19)(.33/.29/.18) D-Jay Jerome(18)(.35/.25)  Spencer Moe(17)(.23)
Adam Kadlec(18)(.23) Drew Warkentine(19)(.19/.09) Kolby Johnson(19)(.05/.11)


  • Developing roster
  • 4 17's that will be in prime developing years
  • They have some 19's that may loose their jobs

Defence

Max Martin(18)(0.47) Vojtech Budik(19)(.46/.23)
Brayden Pachal(18)(.23/.15) Zach Hayes(18)(.17)
Cody Paivarinta(19)(.12/.08) Austin Crossley(18)(.07)
Rhett Rhinehart(16)
  • Mid-experienced group.

Goaltending

Ian Scott(18)(.895/.892)
Nicholas Sanders(19)(.892/.901)
  • Ian scott is a 4th round NHL selection
Imports
Simon Stransky(I)(20)(0.84/1.0/.6)
Vojtech Budik(19)(.46/.23)
Dominik Bokk(17)
  • I think they want to go with a youth movement
Age Index
18.2

Other Overagers
Nick Heid(20)(.19/.08)**might be released

  • P.A has room to add another overage player


Draft History
2017- early 2 sts, 2 2nd
2016-16 : mid (2 2nd/2-3rd) no5th
2015-17:  Mid-early (2 1st) no 4th
2014-18: Mid-early (no 2nd)
2013-19: Mid no 2nd
2012-20: Early 2 -2nd
  • Suggests they should be mid-pack with some good younger players.

TigerTurf's Projected Goal Scoring:
234 Goals

Intangibles

  • 20yr old import (stransky)vs 17yr old import (bokk)
  • Developing roster 
  • Their 19 yr old group is substandard which gives them a disadvantage
  • They have a roster that suggests when drafting one year they concentrate on Defence, the next forward which may bring imbalances
Potential to Increase in value
They have  younger talent that may be primed to start becoming impact players and a more veteran defensive group with solid goal-tending. If they can adapt a defensive play-style they may be able to push for a wildcard spot. IF their 17's can become impact players they could be a minor surprise.

Potential to Decrease  in value
If it is too early for their youngsters to develop. I feel like they will be a lot better than last season.

Prognosis

I initially had them as a dark-horse team, but the more I look at other roster the more I think P.A will be behind the others. Their draft positions and extra picks in the 2017/2016/2015  suggests that PA has a roster that is near the middle of the pack,. Their defence may "peak" next season, but their offence may be 2 years away. That suggests that a defensive play style may benefit them and that they are still too young.

Their 19yr old age group is substandard so this year will be a developing year. They may look to infuse their lineup with some younger players in favor of a few "fillers". I think a wildcard position is what they are competing for.
----------------
-----------------

Red Deer Rebels

Questions: 
Michael Spacek - Does he come back or not? Manitoba Moose has room available. 
Adam Musil - Looks like he may be plucked to the pro's. Put up 5 points in 6 games in the AHL playoffs, I think it is very likely he has an AHL spot, their are 9 forward including him signed for the AHL affiliate Chicago
Overages- They essentially have 2 spots they can fill as it is doubtfull they go with campese and peterson

Offense

Brandon Hagel(19)(1.09/.65) Lane Zablocki(19)(0.84/.51) Grayson Pawlenchuk(20)(.47/.54/.36/.43) Austin Pratt(18)(.49/.21) Akash Bains(18)(.32)  Kristian Reichel(19)
Jordan Roy(19)(.17/.09) Dawson martin(19)(.25/.15)   Brandon Cutler(17)(.08)
Chris Douglas(17)(.08) 

  • They have some top quality talent leaving, however they are almost equally replaceable with the development of Hagel, Pratt, Bains Zablocki, Pawlenchuk who was injured for most of last year, along with their newest import selection. 
  • I expect their offense to be above average with a scoring by committee approach
  • They may add an OA to bolster this group if Spacek is not back.

Defence

Jared Freadrich(19)(.47/.34) Alexander Alexeyev(18)(.51)
Carson Sass(18)(.25)  Brandon Schuldhaus(19)(.26/.11)
Ethan Sakowich(18)(.11) Jacob Herauf(17)(.14)
Dawson Barteaux(17)(.09) 

  • Alexeyev was lost halfway through the season, but was one of the rebels key defenceman
  • Their core are all a year older
  • The fans of the rebels believe this group should be a strongpoint for their team and they could also add an overage if they don't add 2 forwards

Goaltending

Riley Lamb(19)(.899)
Byron Fancy(16)

  • Lamb was their guy in the playoffs, I would expect him to take the spot over a potential 20yr old in Peterson.

Imports

Alexander Alexeyev(18)
Michael Spacek(20)
Kristian Reichel(19) (New) - undrafted

Age Index
18.2-18.4

Other Overagers
Matthew Campese(20)(.14/.21)
Lasse Petersen(20) (.896/.879)

  • I believe they will go different routes, but these players may start the season with the Rebels.
  • They have room to add 2 overagers with could significantly boost their strength.


Draft History
2016-16 : Early ( no 1st, 2 3rds)
2015-17: Late ( no 5th)
2014-18:   early (late 2nd, 2 3rds)
2013-19:  Mid ( no 3rd, no 5th, 2 6th)
2012-20: early ( 2 4ths)
  • Suggests an above average roster

TigerTurf's Projected Goal Scoring:
247 Goals  
  • However this will for surely rise when Overages get added

Intangibles

  • Overagers - The rebels could be in the market for as many as 2 overagers.
  • Should they get an unexpected boost of Musil or Spacek it would significantly boost their offense. If not they are hoping their new euro selection fills out a solid top 6.
Potential to Increase in value
They have room to acquire 2 overagers. I would expect 1 forward and 1 defenceman. If they can get 2 solid players, and have their new import put up strong numbers I think the rebels are the dark horse of the central and have potential to compete for 1st/2nd in the division.

Potential to Decrease  in value
They seem to be injury prone the last couple seasons. If they can't find solid 20's and if their Import doesn't provide a boost they could fall to the 3rd/wildcard spots.

Prognosis

They have a "sneaky" forward core this season.  Their losses are significant, but their potential improvements are also higher than average.  The acquisition of Zablocki combined with the emergence of Brandon Hagel, development of youngster Austin Pratt and a return to the lineup from Grayson Pawlenchuk who was injured most of last year, should more than make up for their losses last season.

Defensively they loose Bobyk but their young core all returns. I mark them to be a better team than last season, but potential to become the Dark Horse of the central. I think they have the guts to compete for a Home Ice playoff Spot in round 1.  If the Tigers don't get their peices of the puzzle to fall correctly the rebels, lethbridge and tigers could be close in strength.

Regina Pats

Questions:
  • Does Sam Steel make the NHL? He was the 30th pick in the 2016 entry draft and put up an insane 2 PPG during last season.  The Ducks have a lot of contracts and may risk losing an NHL player to waivers if he makes the team.
  • They have 3 OA players primed for the Pro's. Do they receive anyone back unexpectedly knowing that Regina is going to the memorial Cup? (hobbs, Wagner, Zborovskiy)
  • They have the rights to Tyson Jost. He played 6 games for the Avalanche after he finished his first year of university. It is highly unlikely he plays in Regina. He will likely start the season in the NHL, or AHL.
  • Nick Henry is out with off-season shoulder surgery and expected to miss most of the first half
  • Emil Oksanen - Their new import selection. Last season he was going to play in the USHL, but at the last second changed his mind and went back to Finland. The reason was because playing in the USHL means he would be ineligible for university hockey in Finland. Their are rumblings that his men's team in Finland might go bankrupt and players have been asked to find other teams. This was a flyer pick. Finland's pre-season starts in late July.

Offense

Sam Steel(19)  Matt Bradley(20)(1.1/.75/.56) Nick Henry(18)(1.13)
Jake Leschyshyn(18)(.85/.24) Wyatt Sloboshan(20)(.46/.67/.63)   Emil Oksanen(19)
Brayden Buziak(19)(.27) George King(19*)  Jeff de Witt(19)(.24/.33/.2)
Bryan Lockner(17)(.21) Robbie Holmes(18)(.17)    Koby Morriseau(17)(.09)
Duncan Pierce(17)(.06)
  • They recently picked up some depth with King and Morriseau
  • They may look at  upgrading sloboshan


Defence

Josh Mahura(19)(.72/INJ/.16) Dawson Davidson(19)(.35/.66/.27)
Jonathan Smart(18)(.42/.16)  Liam Schioler(19)(.14/.17)
Yegor Zmula D(17)

  • Great top line, 
  • Need more depth
  • They could use another top 4 dman.

Goaltending

Tyler Brown(20)(.911/.909/.896)
Max Paddock(17)(.902)

  • Seem solid, but not ideal with an overage tender They were forced to give up Hollett because they needed some offensive depth.

Imports

Yegor Zmula D(17)
Emil Oksanen F (19) * Pats might be lucky to get him to report

  • I'm a bit suprised the pats didn't try and select 2 19's. They did have a very late position but reading the comments in their paper it sounded like they were frustrated with the process. Still they needed some depth.
Age Index
18.4


Other Overagers
Connor Hobbs - Washington has 7 signed guys
Austin Wagner - L.A has 12 forwards  including 2 junior overages
Zborovskiy, Sergey(I) - Rangers have 7 signed guys. (8 last season)


These players will likely all look to make their pro teams, however their are outside possibilities of them being sent back.  AHL starts their season 3 weeks after the WHL, and a couple days before the WHL OA deadline. With the depth of their respective minor league teams it almost feel likely that they may be beneficiaries of an unexpected late gift.


Draft Outlook
2016-16 : Mid ( no 1st, no 3rd, 2 4ths, no 6th)
2015-17: Mid ( no 2nd, 2 3rds, no 4th, no 5th)
2014-18:   Mid ( no 3rd or 4th)
2013-19:  2nd ( 2 4ths)
2012-20:  no 1st ( 2 5ths)
  • Suggests they should be above average with fewer incoming prospects. 

TigerTurf's Projected Goal Scoring:
288

Intangibles

  • It is a guarantee that the pats will add to their lineup.
Potential to Increase in value
Best case scenario is if their  Import Emil Oksaned reports. and they get lucky and one of hobbs/wagner gets sent back. Also we expect them to add  an impact player or two

Potential to Decrease in value
If Sam steel get plucked to the pro's it would be devastating. They need more top end depth to be a championship team.

Prognosis


Last Year the high scoring Pats shipped off a lot of depth for Sloboshan/Mahura/Davidson/Smart/De Witt.

In terms of production. Sloboshan, Dewitt, Davidson,Mahura all lost  production switching teams.   Smart was the only one who gained production but the defenceman also saw time at forward.

Players traded away (zablocki/woods/Hilsendager/Pouteau all increased their production on other teams. If we look at their results they made a lot of moves and in terms of expectations vs where they ended up, It didn't do anything for them last season.

They were unfortunate victims of the injury bug and those moves they made were intended for a dual purpose "Get better last year, while also having those players for this season. Trading for multiple top end talent for the following season is very expensive and very seldom done.

This season...It's the Pats 100th Anniversary Season & They are hosting the Memorial Cup

They have All-star top end talent, but they do need a little more meat & depth to their roster, and I expect that they will shore that area up in a go-for-it at all costs scenario.

Right now on paper they have a  similar team to Moose Jaw, but on paper right now Moose jaw's roster looks better.

They are probably hoping like hell their Import Selection in Emil Oksanen comes to play for them.  Their draft boards cupboards took a chunk last season.  Their lack of picks in the the last few drafts are an indication that they may struggle for the next 4-6 years.

1st or 2nd in the division. 1st-3rd in the conference.


Saskatoon Blades 


Questions: 

They have a number of OA's still on their roster. Do they keep 3 OA forwards, or try to recoup some value? Hebig missed all of last season. He previously put up some really good numbers as a 18.

Offense

Braylon Shmyr(20)(1.00/.58/.62/.26) C. Hebig(20) (1.15/0/.55/.38) Josh Paterson(18)(.51/.26)
 Kirby Dach(16)(.53) Michael Farren(17)(.48)  Chase Wouters(17)(.39)
Gage Ramsay(19)(.22/.08)  Cole Johnson(19)(.29/.11) Logan Christensen(18)(.38/.26)
 Luus MacKenzie(18)(.15/.23) Dryden Michaud(19)(.03) Caleb Fantillo(19)(.18/.19)
Arjun Atwal(18)(.14)
  • Too many "filler" 19's for my liking, but their overall depth greatly improved.
  • Their secondary scoring will be dependent on their development of their 17/18's & scoring by committee approach
  • They have excellent crop of 16 & 17's  that will look to become impact players

Defence

Libor Hajek(19)(.4/.38) Mark Rubinchik(18)(.37)
Jake Kustra(19)(.13/.12) Jackson Caller(18)(.06)
Jantzen Leslie(18)(.03) Seth Bafaro(17)(.04)
  • Core all returns
  • They have a choice to inject a 20yr old overage, but it will be at the expense of a pretty good forward.

Goal-tending 

Logan Flodell(20)(.912/.904)
Joel Grybowski(18)
  • Solid starter
Imports
Libor Hajek D(19)(.4/.38)
Mark Rubinchik D(18)

Hajek was drafted in the 2nd round. Noted as not a point getter but a physicaal and strong defensive player. I think by getting him they decided to forego Fiala as an overage.

Age Index
18.4

Other Overagers
Evan Fiala(20)(.27/.33/.18)
Brock Hamm G(20)(.877/.885/.902)
M. McCarty(20)(.82/.44/.45)
  • They have 3 good quality overage forwards. Do they keep them all or do they try and recoup some value. Do they keep an OA defenceman and sell 2 OA forwards?

Draft History
2017-:15  early 2 1sts, 3 2nd, no 3rd or 4th, 2 5ths
2016-16 :  Early (no 4th)
2015-17:   Mid (2 later 1sts, early 3rd, no 4th)
2014-18:  No first (3-2nds, 2-3rds, no 5th)
2013-19:  No first( 2 late 2nds, no 3rd, no 5th)
2012-20:   (only 3rd/4th5th round)


  • This season is their last "flush year" due to past memorial cup runs
  • In accordance with the natural whl cycle their first draft of prime players group should be 18, which means that the blades should be jumping into average territory, and next season becoming stronger...however....
  • They attempted to do a ton of "value trading" and their 18's are rather weak. IMO they have delayed their overall recovery by a year in attempt to get better a year sooner.
  • Their 15/16/17 age groups look to be solid.
  • In 2019-2020 they should  have a strong team.

TigerTurf Projected Goal Scoring
256


Intangibles

  • The Blades have an older roster. A couple good overages, with a lot of depth players, supplemented with a good core of young 17's.
  •  Come trade deadline time they may have a 19 or 2 that another team may like as a 3rd line player.
  • I have read in the paper that they expect to be strong for this season, but I have troubles seeing it. At best they are in position to compete for 3rd/wildcard
  • They should consider flushing a few of their older bottom liners out in favor of younger guys to balance their roster. 
  • This should be their last "flush year"
  • I feel like they may fall into the trap of trying to make the playoffs this season, which will just transfer assets from a potential up year in 2 years to this season, when this season making 3rd/wildcard is pointless.

Potential to Increase in value

They have a trio of youngsters where if they can become impact players they will launch the blades from average to above average. I feel like the strength of their forward group will rely on their youngsters. If those guys can give them some good scoring depth, the blades could very well be above average and compete for a wildcard spot.

Potential to Decrease in value
If they decide to stay older and it fails.  

Prognosis


The Blades have an older lineup.  They've essentially "wheeled and dealed" the last couple years to  stay competitive as well as put some dishes back into the cupboards. Their last "down year" as a result of their 2013 memorial cup will be this year.

They have 3 very talented  youngsters in Michael Farren,Kirby Dach and Chase Wouters as players to keep an eye on. They have a bundle of 19's that aren't anything to be excited about.

They have a choice on whether to remain older and chase 3rd in the division/wildcard or go with a flush of youth. Most likely they will do a combo of both to try and get that spot, while not being to old.

 I expect them to be a slight notch better than last season. However so are a lot of other teams in their division.They will likely be fighting for 3rd in the division/ wildcard spot.

Swift Current Broncos

Offense

Tyler Steenburg(19)(1.25/.69) Aleksi Heponiemi(18)(1.19) Glenn Gawdin(20)(1.13/1/.75/.33)
Kaden Elder(19)(.4/.09/.06) Riley Stotts(17)(.31) Kole Gable(19)(.3/.21)
MacKenzie Wight(18)(.06)  Tanner Mole(18)(.03) Owen Blocker(17)(.02)
Logan Barlage(16)(4th overall 2015 pick)
  • Insane top line, but afterwards depth takes a huge hit which is a common theme within the Eastern Conference
  • If they don't get lucky and an overage forward returns I Imagine they will go out and bolster their lineup with an OA forward. If that is the case I expect them to dress a very competitive top 2 lines 

Defence

Artyom Minulin(19)(.71/.46) Colby Sissons(19)(.44/.31)
Sahvan Khaira(19)(.24/.16/.07) Dom Schmiemann(18)(.11)
Jake Hobson(18)(.06/.07) Matthew Stanley(19)(.02)
Alexander Jacson(16)
  • Lots of experience and an older back-end so it should be an above average group
  • They may make moves to get younger

Goal-tending

Taz Burman(20)(.907/.891/.890/.884)
  • May not be an all star, but should be solid in net

Imports

Aleksi Heponiemi(18)(1.19)
Artyom Minulin(19)(.71/.46)
  • Best combo of imports in the league. Swift excels at the Import Draft
Age Index
18.2

Other Overagers(Pro?)
Lane Pederson(1.05/.76/.32)
Max Lajoie(20)(.62/..6/.57)
Miller, Arthur
Chaulk, Conner
Arnold, Brandan

  • I think their are decent chances that at least 1 of the  Pederson/Lajoie ( NHL signed OA's) could return.
  •  Swift won't go get an OA until these players fates are decided.  They have some fringe guys to play until that happens.

Draft History
2017-15: mid-late ( 2 1sts, no 4th/5th)
2016-16 :  Early ( 2 1sts, no 5th)
2015-17:    Mid (no 4th, 2 5th)
2014-18:  Mid ( no 2nd,3rd,4th, 2-5th)
2013-19:  Mid ( no 4th)
2012-20:  Early ( 2 3rd)

  • Suggests they should have a weak 18yr old group, with the picks they gave up
TigerTurf Projected Goal Scoring
260

Intangibles

  • Do they get an OA back? Getting Pederson back would fit into their overall picture quite nicely. However their depth up front is lacking unless they are able to dress a lot of younger players to fill out their bottoms lines.
Potential to Increase in value
Their 2nd line. If they get an unexpected return with an OA player or acquire a solid overage that will compliment their up and coming younger group, they should be able to dress a very good quality top 6.
They need their incoming 16's/17's to be above average in strength to give much needed depth to the bottom 6.
Potential to Decrease in value
Their secondary scoring. I feel that the strength of this line will either catapult them up, or drop them back depending on their performance. A big or long-term injury to their top 6 could be enough to drop them back to average territory.

Prognosis

The broncos have the best Import Drafting in the WHL and those Imports will fuel this team from average to above average.

The Broncos may have some depth issues, however in their 2016, & 2017 drafts they  had an extra 1st round pick, which should give them a good group of younsters.

Their 2014 draft they were missing a lot of high picks, and their 18yr old group is sub-par. That will probably hurt them for next season, but how will that affect them this season?

I predict the Broncos have the best chance at getting 3rd in the division.



Prediction Time

Eastern Division

Top Tier (Strong)
Moose Jaw   Age:18.4    GF:293
Regina         Age: 18.4   GF:288  

  • These 2 rivals should have an amazing battle. I feel MJ may be better on paper right now, but once Regina adds that may change. Regina has strong top line but depth issues.  Moose jaw has strong depth up front, but a younger back-end that might be taken advantage of.
Above Average
Swift Current   Age:18.2     GF:260

  • Dark Horse I see potential in them to surprise if they can improve their depth


Average
Brandon            Age:18.33   GF:225

  • Volatile, Could have great assets to trade at the deadline. I have had thoughts of bumping them to both above average and below average

Saskatoon         Age:18.4     GF:256

  • Like Kootenay an older roster of lesser skilled talent. If they have chemistry they could rise, if they don't they might try for a rebuild.
Prince Albert   Age:18.2      GF:234  
  • Prince Albert is a semi-Dark Horse they have a roster where their youngsters should be better sooner than their opponents. Their roster is pretty young; However, they were a lot better team missing some vets late in the year, and that is why I am not putting them into below average territory.

Central Division

I felt the Central division was weak last season.

Top Tier
Medicine Hat Age: 18.5 GF:310

  • Will their defensive game be too much of a hamper? This is dependent on the pieces of the puzzle falling into place. If the puzzle pieces don't fall I would put them into the tier below

Above Average Tier
 Red Deer Age:18.3  GF: 247
  •  I would consider Red Deer as a "dark horse" Their is potential for them to push up

 Lethbridge Age:18.5  GF:220 *
  • They have potential with a strong playoff push last season with numerous injuries, but their depth may push them into average territory


Average Tier
Calgary Age: 18.45 GF: 270
  •  Volatile roster..They have some scoring potential, but could slip with volatility on defensive game. I'm not sure where to put them, this is a "safe spot". 
Kootenay Age:18.4 GF: 210
  •  lesser skill but experienced, similar to Saskatoon
Edmonton Oil Kings Age:17.9 GF:225

  • The Oil Kings look like a team that could defy the norm. They are very young, but their lineup up and down has  "great potential". They are likely a little too young and inexperienced to make significant noise this season however as the year goes on they will get better and better, and could grab a 3rd/wildcard spot. 
  •  I will be watching them closely because their progression will determine if they could have a strong roster next season, or if it will take 2 seasons.


Overall

Top teams 
MJ, Regina, MH.

My picks for Dark Horses:
Swift, Red Deer,

Teams with volatile rosters that could miss the playoffs or could push for 2nd in the division Brandon, P.A Calgary.

Unique Teams
Saskatoon - Older roster that attempted to get better in their last "flush year" through value trading. They also have a trio of 17's that good really improve a lot.



Team in the toughest "unluckiest spot"
Saskatoon - They tried to get better a year earlier in their rebuild. MJ and Regina look to have pretty strong teams. They might have a much better team, and may be tempted to bolster when they should supplement their 16/17's.

Kootenay - Similar to saskatoon, an older roster with lesser experience. They have had a couple big trades catch up with them. The Cody Eakin deal in 2011, as well as the Tim Bozon deal a few seasons ago. All those picks and players ravaged their depth.
-----

Other Notes

Regina - Their cupboards will be empty after this season. They could very well take a long time to recover after this season.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

I believe babenko signed a contract in the khl so he will not be back.

TigerTurf said...

You are right thanks.

TigerTurf said...

My interpretations of rosters may be wrong, and will change as moves are made, although I tried to account for what a team could do to maximize their long-term potential.

But you can make your own assessments. I will be trying to organize it better as well over the coming days.

TigerTurf said...

My interpretations of rosters may be wrong, and will change as moves are made, although I tried to account for what a team could do to maximize their long-term potential.

Their are just so many unknowns at this point, it is almost pointless to predict.
Example: Nolan patrick just suffered through a facial infection. If he keeps suffering injuries, brandon may get a significant boost. If that happens it might make sense for them to add and tinker and suddenly their could be a 3 team race.

What if Saskatoon thinks they suffered enough and wants to make a run, and swift goes, well this is our last "up cycle" suddenly their could be potential for 4 teams making a push and changing their rosters significantly.


But you can make your own assessments. I will be trying to organize it better as well over the coming days.

Anonymous said...

you forgot the oil kings in your final wrap up

TigerTurf said...

Honestly though my conclusions could be pretty poor as I don't know the inns and outs of the other teams. I will be better next year, this year is my "developing year". I look forward to be proven wrong because that means I will learn something new and I can look back to this post and my methods of thinking.
-----

I added the Oil Kings in.....They have a ton of younger players that we will have to see how they will perform. They know they had poor draft positioning and are working on developing their younger players, and gained assets last season. I have faith that they will develop the right way. IMO they've done a lot of good things in riding out the poor seasons and not panicking. They are still quite young
---

Saskatoon I'm worried about. They are trying the analytics trade for value thing. I think they screwed up and delayed their development for a year...However they do have potential for a surprise year but it may tempt them to bolster and take away assets for when their group of good younger players come through. If Saskatoon can get into the 3rd round I'll swallow my words and it will change my thinking, but I think it is a fools errand unless their grand plan is to do a massive selloff and in that case I will think it is genius.
------

MJ and Regina will be good by default because of their drafts. MJ just might get super unlucky with both years being behind Regina's shadow.
----------
Red Deer I actually thought would suck this year until I looked at their roster and saw that they had a lot of potential for an "up year". I think most people will think they have no scoring, especially with their losses, but they have so many veteran guys that will score by committee. If they can improve their defensive group they might have a better team than their roster full of veteran superstars that crapped the bed in their memorial cup year.

--------------

Regina though....I'm worried for them. They are showing strains with their off-season acquisitions....Trading away very good goal-tending depth for an overage scorer. They are also scouring the Junior A leagues for scorers, and the whl for younger depth. To me that is a sign of desperation.


They really need an overage to come back from the pro's IF that happens I won't be as worried. If sam steel were to get plucked to the pro's I'd suggest they give up their bid because otherwise it may be ugly for them.

They also screwed up on the import draft and didn't go for older veteran players....wtf was their gm thinking. They drafted a young 17yr old Dman and a player who may be a long shot to report when their depth was weak....

Anonymous said...

According to Mick Kohler agent on Twitter hes coming to North America in the fall.


Nassen recently started following the Tigers on Twitter. Could mean nothing for all we know, or I could be wrong.

TigerTurf said...

Yeah, it will be very interesting to see if Nassen comes over.

From what I hear is a very mobile skater and thinks the game well, but can be soft in his own end.

Anonymous said...

Jordan Henderson traded to the Ice for a conditional 6th round draft pick in 2019.

Anonymous said...

I dont see why it is a conditional 6th round pick. Why conditional? I thought he would have some value

TigerTurf said...

By my count they have 4 players in "contention" for the OA spot. Clouston was likely trying to trade him and this was his highest value.

Kroeker, Colton C
Murray, Troy D
Petit, Mario G
Jordan Henderson

Anonymous said...

The conditional pick might have something to do with performance or games played. For example if he plays a certain amount of game or has a certain amount of points the pick might become a 5th or a 4th. That's my guess anyway.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know if the tigers have listed any new prospects over the year who could be at training camp or even potentially make the team.

Anonymous said...

It's usually around this time every summer that Alan Caldwell over at Small Thoughts At Large rolls out the protected list for all 22 teams.

Anonymous said...

Speculation in WHL circles that Darren Kruger is leaving the Tigers for the vacant amateur scout in Calgary with Brad McEwen gone to Hockey Canada.

Anonymous said...

I know you noted that your perception of some teams might not be accurate, so I'll try and put into context how the Regina Pats moves that have been made this summer aren't so much a sign of "desperation". This is my general overview in response to points in yours...


The first move involving Hollett and Bradley... Pats were going to be adding a skilled/experienced OA player at some point. Paddock got a jump on it and did it only a couple weeks after the Pats' season ended. I was actually hoping the Pats would make a move for Bradley, Fischer, or Rassell with Hollett being the likely return given the Tiger's goaltending situation. Bradley plays on similar style team and will fit in nicely with the Pats. Hollett would have been a great back-up for Brown(who has proved his worth the past two playoffs) this season, but Paddock did him a favour a sent him somewhere where he'll likely come in as the starter. He's a first round picked goalie and wasn't likely going to see a ton of ice with a 20 year old tender as starter. If I were an NHL drafted, 1st round bantam goalie with the size and skill Hollett has, I'd rather go somewhere where I'll start. Paddock also wasn't forced to make this move to improve forward depth. After observing the skill, size, and potential that 16yo Max Paddock showed when he was called upon last season, Hollett became more of an asset. He will get his back-up experience this season and move into a starting role next season, when the Pats SHOULD be rebuilding. If he proves he isn't strong enough yet, a trade for a back up will be made, but like I said, Paddock was impressive last season and will get a more than fair chance. This trade made lots of sense and the Pats also recouped picks that will be valuable either this season or down the road if not traded away.

I wouldn't say they are "scouring" the junior 'A' ranks, but have listed two. One was George King(who has signed) and the other is Bryce Platt, who played for coach Herauf on the Pat C's. He's played WHL before as well so he is being given a look, but wouldn't expect much more from him. King, on the other hand, led the MJHL in goal scoring as an 18 year old, so there very easily could be something there. He might play a decent role through the first half, but come Jan. 10, he would add experience and scoring depth to the bottom six after he's surely to be bumped down the depth chart. Which is why this doesn't seem crazy. You could have an older, experienced bottom six with good to very good offensive skill. They want older depth and he is someone who will have no issue playing a lesser role on a Memorial Cup team. On top of that, he could come back the next season as an O/A leader on a rebuilding team, taking strain off the loss of the higher impact overagers.

Morrisseau wasn't so much sought after for depth, but rather a great deal that fell into Paddock's lap. With his health concerns due to a couple of concussions as a 16 y/o last season and wanting to be closer to home because of it, the Pats were able to get a late birthday, 9th overall bantam pick for a huge bargain. Pats doctors reported he was good to go for this season, but obviously there's a bit more risk to reoccur. With his size and skill, he could end up being a valuable player for the Pats this season, or he could become a trading chip later this season when acquiring high end talent. On a side note, whether you are including this in you're thought process, but the signing of '01 Mackenzie Belinski(was announced with King's signing) was a Pats drafted player who has been showing high offensive skill at lower levels and will likely play junior 'A' this season having been a very high pick in the MJHL draft, but will probably see some time on the Pats with players gone to camps early on...

1/2

Fight Guy

Anonymous said...

..The import draft gave me some concerns as well. Was very surprised when Paddock picked a 17 y/o defenseman with the same expectation as you that they would go after 19 y/o guys. Zamula is still a bit of a mystery, but being Russian, he could come here and his skill might help him adjust to the North American game quicker. He had 26 points in 36 games on a not so amazing team and 23 of them being assists, playing against his peers. Paddock likes puck moving defenders. Though we haven't seen any official measurements, he is supposed to have good size for 17 as well. And because this is nearly a month after the original comments, it's probably known by now that both him and Oskanen have signed. I also had my concerns with the Oskanen pick as he was playing pro(tier two), but he has left the team and coming to the Pats. He will undoubtedly play a top six role, possibly next to Steel, who I really cannot see going NHL this season. Maybe he gets some games, but he doesn't pass the 9-game mark. Makes too much sense not to send him back to lead what is expected to be the best team in the country(simply due to hosting the 100th Memorial Cup), and who is being pegged as number one or two centerman on the U20 Canada Team.

The Pats defense will be fine to start the season. Many are concerned, but most of those doubters aren't expecting much improvement from last season's players. Mahura... enough said. Davidson showed what he is capable of these past playoffs before being injured and should be back even better this year. Many doubt Smart because of how he performed in the later parts of the season, which is when he was bumped down to 7th on the depth chart and wasn't given near as much opportunity as when he first arrived, which will kill a lot of younger player's confidence and consistency not playing near as many minutes. He was playing forward when injuries happened to get him more ice time. I'm confident he will come back starting in the top four and reproving his worth. Liam Schioler you have listed as an 18y/o. He will be 19 this season and is grossly under rated. He has become the Pats top defensive defenseman and game after game, became harder to play against. He was the next Pats pick after Steel in the 2013 draft. He was expected to come with more of an offensive game, so I think that's why some look at him as more of a "bust" of a second rounder. He is one player I don't see going anywhere that others don't think has proved enough yet.

As for Sloboshan, he won't be upgraded until he proves he needs to be or is forced out. After the performance and hard work he put forth when the Pats were down Brooks in the playoffs, he might not be such a right off for this season. If he worked on his scoring touch over the summer, he might surprise a lot of people. If Wagner returns(best chance with his injury recovery) or Hobbs(less likely but would be crazy if he does) then Sloboshan is gone for sure.

While some big moves are certain to be made, the Pats really aren't as far off as many think. With the expectation that all the returning players work hard in the off season and have worked on their weaknesses(which was quite noticeable in most of last years returners), they should all come back a year older and stronger, with WHL Championship playoff experience and pretty big playoff adversity experience to boot. Perhaps many are being conservative with their expectations, but I'm being realistic based on what the current Pats regime has accomplished with developing player's skills and teaching a high paced, offensive game. Might not be as dangerous as last season to start, but after some games are played and big trades are made, they will easily be on par with or better than last season.

2/2

Fight Guy

TigerTurf said...

Thanks. I usually feel that local knowledgable diehard fans who have watched the team for a long time are usually on a pretty good track.

I agree that if all their pieces fall into place they aren't that far off. I had my doubts that Emil Oksanen would report. I didn't even include him in their roster depth charts.

They just need Steel's return and their top core looks pretty dangerous...more-so if they can get an unexpected OA to come back.

They should have fun battles with MJ this coming season, as MJ also looks pretty dangerous on paper.

Anonymous said...

Regina vs Moose Jaw battle will probably be one of, if not, THE most competitive between the two teams ever. Will be very fun. Nothing has been announced or anything, but my guess is their 3-game series from Feb 14-18 is going to end in an outdoor game at Mosaic Stadium, which should be a very hot ticket!

Fight Guy

TigerTurf said...

Interesting about Kruger..I hope that isn't the case.....Willie D must have pulled McEwen in from Calgary having a tiger connection when he was here in the hat. For his Hockey career though it is probably a good move to
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I don't really like seeing guys like Henderson traded away. The Tigers do it because their gameplan is all about speed and mobility and a guy like schultz fits into that mould a lot better.

Hendersons defensive intelligence and no mistakes type play I will badly miss because the Tigers don't often have that element in their lineup.
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If both MJ and Regina are as good on the ice as they are on paper, and live up to expectations, it could be one helluva round 2 matchup where 1 will go home early.
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The Tigers and Regina have been very active trading partners lately and might be starting to develop a bit of a rivalry off that....

Boston Leier, Cole Sanford, Matt Bradley, Connor Hobbs, Dryden Hunt, Gary Haden, Kyle Burroughs, Nick Schneider, Logan McVeigh, Daniel Wapple, have all played for both teams in the last 4 years.



Anonymous said...

When does training camp open? I thought it would be soon here.

Anonymous said...

Troy Murray isn't listed on the Ices preseason roster. So it looks the OA spot is set there, but who knows what the conditional draft pick is.

Also, interesting Bradley isnt listed on the Pats preseason roster.

TigerTurf said...

I'm not trusting the whl roster sheet to be accurate pre-season, they've missed players before.

Anonymous said...

Now offical Kruger is off to the Flames.