Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Next Season

The Tigers won't loose very much at all going into next season.

Losses: 
Ty Stanton
Brian Williams
Mack Shields
2 Of Last years 19's

Losing Stanton is a big hit to Defense, but the other are replaceable.

Roster For Next Season by Age Group
Overagers
Steven Owre**
Chad Butcher**
Clayton Kirichenko**
Alex Mowbray
Connor Clouston
**= My Estimate as FrontRunners

IF those that are starred all come back; that would leave Mowbray and Clouston on the outside looking in. Those starred all had "A"s on their jersey's.  Their were earlier rumors about butcher wanting out. It would be a big loss if true, so we will see what happens with that.

I could see a demand for Clouston as he plays a very simple and aggressive game. Clouston would fit in as a 2nd pairing guy. Mowbray brings a solid work ethic, but I could see him being passed because of his lower point totals. He would be a great pickup for a 6/7th pick. Mowbray could be a 40 point 3rd line leader type player

19's
Matt Bradley
Zach Fischer
Mark Rassall
Brad Forrest
Nick Heid
Ty Schultz
Nick Schneider

I would pose the 19 yr old age group as late bloomers. They all have potential, but that potential has been a bit slower in coming out.


Matthew Bradley
 At the beginning of the season I considered Bradley a perimeter player. A player that could skate, but was always skating to the outside. Towards the middle of the season his game evolved. He was a consistent dangerous threat in the offensive zone. I expect him to break-out and have a huge season next year, to go with his improvements at the end of last season. He had 51 points this year. If he can stay healthy I would predict  PPG+ numbers

Zach Fischer
Fischer was an extreme late bloomer. He has had a bunch of injury troubles all season.At the end of the season his game completely changed. He was thrust into the top 6 role, and looked like he had been playing their all season.  Fischer only had 13 points this season, but 10 of those points were in the last 10 games of the season. I see potential in him to surprise and turn into a near ppg player next year. Realistically, he may not reach that, but If he plays in the top 6 I think it is a reachable figure. I think a better conservative estimate would be 40-60 points if he can stay healthy.

Schneider
It was a bit unfortunate he struggled to start the season. His game transformed and he became a lot more aggressive in the crease and a lot more mobile. We haven't seen a goaltender since osgood become a consistent NHL tender, but we see a lot of good traits in Schneider and I think he has a real good shot at being a longtime pro.

Mark Rassall
Rassall I expect some big things for him next season. He took a big step in his game earlier in the season; developing, into a power forward type role with above average 1 on 1 skill. I felt he was under-utilized later in the year. He will probably compete with Fischer for top 6 ice-time. The Tigers strategy is not typically geared towards the powerforward role. Rassall will have to force the Coaches hand and become too dangerous too pass up, if he wants a top 6 role.

Nick Heid
Heid reminds me a lot of Tyler Lewington's game. Solid stay at home guy who plays a consistent game. The Tigers will need him to anchor a 2nd line pairing. I hope he has a strong off-season developing some muscle. With the way the Tigers defense is looking, Heid will be looked at to play a physical role and I hope he doesn't go overboard with that early in the season.  Tyler Lewington fought quite a bit early in his 20yr old year and I think that took a large physical toll on him.

Brad Forrest
Forrest was another late bloomer. He has a good set of wheels and can carry the puck, but early in the season he was getting stripped consistently. At the end of last season he has shown he has learned from that. I think he is capable of taking his game to another level next season, as the Tigers will need him too. He could possibly fall on the depth charts otherwise. I expect a 3rd line pairing from from him next season.

Ty Schultz
Schultz maybe thrust onto the top pairing, unless a skilled Defensive import pick is found. Is he ready for it? I'm not sure...he would be more suited for a 2nd line, pushing a top pairing guy for more icetime.


18's
Ryan Jevne
Max Gerlach
Mason Shaw
Caleb Fantillo
Dylan MacPherson
David Quenneville

This is an interesting group. MacPherson will be a late bloomer with his first full whl season as an 18 yr old, but he showed some very strong defensive instincts in his short stints with the Tigers. Great mobility, great body positioning. I see really good potential in him, perhaps following the foosteps of a guy like Becker who was also late comer making the team.

Jevne, Fantillo, Gerlach  - their first season in the WHL, ice-time increasing as the season went on. Gerlach shocked us all with 30 goals, but his production slowed towards seasons end. He has some incredible hands and an ability to snipe without taking much time to get the puck off his stick.

Jevne and Fantillo are taking a lane similar to that of Fischer. Used as depth players but with expected potential to eventually breakout. I would expect them both to take until mid-end of next season before we start to see what they are really capable of. If they can break out earlier that will be awesome

Quenneville is more of an offensive specialist. He grabbed a ton of points, His quick release and shot is very powerful. He has trouble with his positioning when laying a hit, and sometimes hesitates for a second getting his bearings in the D zone.  He can also be prone to getting walked around on the outside by bigger fast players. His defensive game needs to improve, but his offense is greatly welcomed.

Shaw - Almost a point per game player in his 17 yr old year. He plays much bigger than his size. Everyone seems to like his game and knows what he can do being a fan favorite. Shaw/gerlach will be a very fun combo to watch for the 2-3 years.

17's
James Hamblin
Ryan Rommelaere
Tyler Preziuso
Gary Haden

Prezuiso and Hamblin were beneficiaries to the Tigers low depth this season. Both got a head start on their development. Hamblin seems still quite raw in his development, but has some wheels on him. He got pushed around a lot and needs to get stronger. Once he can effectively manage the rougher play we should see his game take a few jumps, although I don't expect to see that until his 18 yr old year. I am hoping towards the end of next year we do see leaps forward in his game.

Preziuso shows some good playmaking skills and didn't look out of place at all. Given a bigger role he is a player that could potentially "surprise" next  season.  Haden isn't as fast on his skates as the usual Tiger breed, but has put up points on his AAA Midget teams. I could see a Prezuiso/Haden/Chyzonski combo that tears it up in a few years.

16's
Ryan Chyzowski
Baxter Anderson
Cole Clayton D
Josh McNeil
Dawson Heathcote
Layne Matechuk D

Duncan McGovern G  Put up .919 save percentage in midget AAA which is quite impressive
Everyone except Matechuk and McGovern received playing time with the Tigers this season. Judging from what we saw from the call-ups this season, these 16's will be extremely competitive. I would not be surprised to see 3 of them make the team.


Roster By Line Combos
Fischer Owre Butcher
Gerlach Bradley Shaw
Rassall Fantillo Jevne
Chyzowski Preziuso Haden

Anderson, McNeil, Heathcote

Kirichenko Schultz
Heid Quenneville
Forrest  MacPherson
Clayton
Matechuk

Schneider
Rommelaere
McGovern
New Prospects

Import Selections
The Tigers also have 2 Import Picks available. I think they will try for at least 1 defenceman, but they are potentially flexible with the second pick. In general it is good practice to stagger the Import Picks, so your picking up 1 every year, and always picking in the first round.

Size 
Forwards - While they are still a bit smaller, their size on average is looking a bit better up front, As they may have a guy that is 6 feet on every line.

Defence
They lost some size on Defense however they still maintain decent size.    Heid and Mchperson are both 6'2, kirichenko and schultz are 6'0 and 6'1. If cole clayton makes the team he was 6'2 as a 15yr old.

Goaltending
The Stockton Heat are using Schneider as their #1. He has put up an .896 save percentage in 6 games as the heat push for the playoffs. The Tigers will have a very capable goaltender. The only negative of schneider doing so well is that, It may elevate the requirement to find a good quality goaltender this season. Judging by the flames Depth at goaltender, they will urgently have a spot for him @ 20.

Season Expectations & Notes
Their overall depth should be a lot better. They don't loose very much, and they have had quite a few prospects who played games last season. Their should be quite a bit of competition in camp.

I expect this team to blossom towards the end of the season. They have some talent up front that have potential and project to become bigger threats. (I think 4 of their top6 will hit the PPG mark if they can stay healthy) The other two hopefully will be close.  Their bottom 6 will push the TOP 6 for ice time and laden with upcoming talent.

Defence - I am hoping they find a gem of an import. If they can find a #1 defenceman as their import selection, I almost expect a"surprise season"  A season where the WHL critics won't really mark them as dangerous, but they come from nowhere and lay out beatings, getting better as the season goes on.

Forwards & Defence
Their goaltending and forwards look to be strong points. Their defense was quite reliant on Stanton last season, but as a whole they have improved and a year older.  Still they do not currently have that #1 defensive presence

If they can't find a #1 Dman as an import I think they should still do well. Defence will be a question mark. I think I would expect a near .500 record until late october, and then see a climb up the standings. This team with all their young talent, should get better as the season progresses.

Conference Projections
Still to be researched. Initially the division looks like it will be really competitive. Lethbridge, Calgary should still ice strong teams. Red Deer will have a bunch of losses. Swift Current had a really young team and could make a big jump.

Thursday, April 7, 2016

Tigers & SMG/ Come To Terms

http://www.tigershockey.com/article/tigers-smg-sign-agreement

The Medicine Hat Tigers have been working hard to get a deal done with SMG over the last year and a half. It was unfortunate that a deal was not in place before construction began on the Canalta Centre, but the Tigers are very happy to have this process completed.


Phew! I think the whole of Medicine Hat is glad to have this process completed.

Edit: This deal is subject to a budget amendment from the City. At this time it is unknown how much the City is on the hook.

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Canalta/SMG/Tigers/City Lease Situation

The Miscommunication Continues

Tigers Release on their Facebook Page
SMG & Tigers reach deal on Fri. Apr. 1st. WHL, SMG & Tigers reviewed & agreed to written contract Mon. Apr. 4, document awaiting signatures
Tigers will make further comment at the appropriate time


SMG/City Reponse

A late afternoon response from acting chief administrator and public services commissioner Karen Charlton briefly described talks between the Western Hockey League team and SMG-Canada, the facility operator and lead city negotiator.
It seemed to contradict the statement from the team that “a deal had been reached Friday, April 1,” between SMG and the team.
“The Medicine Hat Tigers have presented a final proposed licence (lease) agreement to SMG,” Charlton’s brief statement read.
“SMG and the city are currently reviewing the document to ensure the agreement is fair to both the team and city taxpayers and accurately reflects discussions since last week.”
Thoughts
 I find it odd that the Tigers are drafting legal documents and having Canalta Review and sign. If your leasing a place, whether it's a car, or renting a building, it usually goes the opposite direction.
Nonetheless reading between the lines patterns are emerging here. I would put money on it that the Tigers past "agreements" in (June 2015), and (a couple weeks ago) followed a similar process. Verbal talks, Tigers draft a document, the City/SMG reviews their proposal and deems it not acceptable. The Tigers balked saying they had a deal in place. SMG says no that was a proposal we can't accept.
Seeing as the deadline is(Tomorrow) Thursday, if we don't hear a signed lease agreement by the end of thursday. We may see this turn into a nightmare situation, which I really hope doesn't play out.

This Pre-Release also seems like a political move to gain favor of the public. Announcing contract deals before they are 100% completed is poor manners.


Thursday, March 31, 2016

Evicted! Edited With the Tigers Reponse Below

Re-Edited: With the Tigers Reponse

http://chattelevision.ca/__news/city-serves-tigers-eviction-notice/

The City served the Medicine Hat Tigers an eviction notice today.  They have repeated numerous times on their facebook page that this is not an April Fool's Joke.

A quote from the article above

Right before training camp started in August, a temporary access agreement was signed by SMG and the team. The city says over the course of the season, that agreement was renewed 11 times, with the last such agreement expiring March 24. Clugston says they hoped there would be a last minute deal, but the majority of council is on board with this decision.


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The Medicine Hat Tigers Response
http://www.tigershockey.com/article/whl-disappointed-with-city-decision

The financial terms of the agreement were settled in June 2015; however the City of Medicine Hat and SMG have been continually looking to claw back what was originally agreed upon. The Medicine Hat Tigers have been dealing with SMG almost daily for months to finalize this deal. On a conference call last week both parties agreed to the final issues. The Tigers then signed the contract on March 24th, 2016 believing the matter was concluded. However, once again the City and SMG decided to make changes and not to honor what was agreed to earlier that week, a trend that has become too common in these negotiations.

Although the team is not obligated to do so, in a gesture of good faith, the Tigers have paid their rent at the Canalta Centre earlier this season. Meanwhile all revenues that are owed to the team have not been paid by SMG.


Thoughts
So It appears the WHL has been working with both sides and an agreement is still not in place. Previous comments on this blog have stated one of the biggest disagreements causing an issue is: Who pays for the dressing rooms? It is a significant chunk of change.

The Tigers position says they have had agreements, but the agreements have been changed multiple times at the last minute.

I find it hard to beleive that if your talking everyday to each other, that each side still has communication issues. Sounds fishy from both sides...


Good News

Nick Schneider
Nick Schneider made his pro debut yesterday night with the Stockton Heat of the AHL.  Starter Kevin Poulin had an injury and the flames decided to go with the young 18yr old callup.

Here is the Game Boxscore
http://theahl.com/stats/game-summary.php?game_id=1015691

Here is his aftergame interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkWpCAD04j4

Schneider was listed as the Games 3rd star, stopping 34 of 37 shots in a 4-2 Loss to the San Diego Gulls.  The gulls have a .600 winning percentage, while Stockton dropped down to .500.

Hunter Shinkaruk
Shinkaruk scored his first goal in the NHL. He deflected a puck into the net. The Flames lost 8-3. Here is the video
https://www.nhl.com/video/t-279611060/c-43104703

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Tiger Season Comes To An End

A 6-4 Loss to the Oil Kings in Game 73.

A Disapointing Ending.  6-0 Dominance in the regular season. One Game, Winner take all loss.

I guess the game tonight seemed kinda similar to how their overall season played out. A quick 2-0 lead to start the game. Followed by some goaltending and Special Teams troubles. A valiant comeback that had the arena rocking. Then a PP goal did them in


13 Season Playoff Streak
The Loss tonight ends the Tigers 13 season in a row playoff streak. It's been 13 years since their was no playoff hockey in April.  It will be only the 3rd time in 13 years the Tigers haven't advanced to Round 2 of the WHL playoffs.
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Draft Lottery
The Tigers have a 95% chance at the 5th overall pick. They have a 5% chance at the 3rd pick and can only move up if they win the lottery.

Good Luck to the 20 Year Olds who are moving on in Ty Stanton, Mack Shields, Brian Williams, as well as Austin Lotz

More Later

Saturday, March 19, 2016

Tigers Force One Game Playoff

The Tigers Did It!!!! They forced a 1 game playoff, which will be Held Tuesday night in Medicine Hat against the Edmonton Oil Kings.

Edmonton was creamed by Red Deer 7-2, the Tigers Defeat Lethbridge 4-2


Edmonton crawled into the post season with 10 points in their last 15 games = .333% winning percentage.

The Tigers recouped 21/30 points in their last 15 = .700%
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The Tigers went 6-0 against the OIl Kings during the Season, however the last couple games have been extremely close

Tickets
Season Ticket Holders can pick up their tickets at the Canalta Centre Sunday march 20-21 from 9am-6pm. Tickets go on sale to the General Public Tuesday @ 9am.

The Winner of this one game playoff will face the Brandon Wheat Kings in a 2-3-2 playoff format.

Friday, March 18, 2016

1 Game Left

Unfortunately the Hurricanes Downed the Tigers 9-3 Friday night In Lethbridge. 3 of the Hurricanes goals were empty net goals.

Hurricanes 17yr old goaltender Stuart Skinner scored an empy net goal, after the Tigers pulled Schneider when they were down 7-3.

The win for the Hurricanes also Clinched the Central Division. I don't think many expected them to do that at the start of the season.
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For the Tigers it means tomorow nights' game in Medicine Hat is a must win. They must also rely on Red Deer to Defeat Edmonton.

If the Tigers win, and IF Edmonton loses, their would be a one game playoff tuesday night in Medicine Hat.




Friday, March 11, 2016

Playoff Chances Updated

From February 3rd

"If Regina or Edmonton doesn't falter the Tigers need to win @ a .700 rate. which is essentially pulling a rabbit out of the net at this point in the season."

Since Then
Edmonton has 12 points in 14 games...Keeping their same rate, but a tiny bit lower than my math predictions which estimated them at a .500 rate.

The Tigers went 15 points in 15 games (.500) rate. It is well  below the needed target of .700
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What That Means
The Tigers have only made a small gain.

The Good News is that in their last 10 games, they are playing at a .750 rate. If they continue that rate, they have a shot at making the playoffs.

They were pretty much on the border of no return, before pulling off 15/20 points.

Schedules Remaining
Tigers:  KTN( H,A) CGY(A), Leth(H,A)
Edmonton: CGY(H,A) Leth(A) ktn(A), RD(H,A)

Both teams play 3 games in 3 nights this weekend, and again could potentially harbor a big swing. The Tigers could both leapfrog Edmonton or become eliminated completely.

3.5 Edmonton wins or Tiger losses will equal elimination.
Edmonton has a tough schedule, but the Tigers do as well.

Friday, March 4, 2016

WoWaWeeWah! Tigers Defeat Oil Kings 5-4

The Tigers defeated Edmonton 5-4 Tonight!

The Tigers scored 2 goals in the last 1:38 to tie and then win the game.
They sit 4 points back of edmonton with 7 games remaining.

The Tigers plays swift saturday and could close within 2 points, with Edmonton playing saskatoon monday.

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Scoreboard Watching - Big Week

Interesting Week
This week and weekend will get very interesting. If the stars align their is potential for a massive swings in the standings.. If we look at the extremes where one team does all the winning and the other does all the losing, the Tigers could potentially either close to a 2 point gap, or become 1 point away from elimination.

Week/Weekend Schedules (including rare monday games)
Tigers Play: Ktn(W), Edm, Swift
Edmonton Plays: Tigers,Sask
Saskatoon Plays: Brn(L), Leth, Koot, EDM.
Swift Plays: RD(L), MH, Reg, MJ

IF IF IF..... the Tigers can win against Kootenay(3-0 Win) and Edmonton on friday. They would potentially be 4 points back with 7 games remaining. If the stars align perfectly and Saskatoon beats Edmonton and the Tigers beat swift, that would turn to a 2 point gap.

Their is a glimmer of hope and that depends on this week. Biggest week of the season so far. The Game against Edmonton on Friday could potentially be the "turning point" in both teams' bids for the playoffs.

Potential 2-3-4 way Race
It is unlikely to happen, but their is potential that this gap could suddenly become a 3 or 4 team race, with 4 teams separated by 3 points or less. Edmonton could very well win both games and almost cement their spot as well.